The biggest news story in the manufactured home community business came on May 31, 2011 – so mark that date in your calendar for some type of anniversary celebration. That’s the date that Equity Lifestyle Properties announced that it was buying 76 communities from Hometown America for a staggering $1.4 billion price tag.
So why’s this such a big news story? For a bunch of reasons.
Sam Zell is no idiot.
Sam Zell did not make the Forbes 400 list by making bad purchases. In fact, his reputation at making smart buys is legendary. And he is very good at market timing. He got his start buying apartments in down cycles and riding them to the top. For him to make such a bold move signals that he believes that the market for manufactured home communities has hit bottom and is about to rise. Based on his reputation, most investors would not want to bet against him.
The size of the gamble.
Equity Lifestyle is a large, publicly traded company. Sure, they can take small gambles on all types of things. But $1.4 billion is not a small gamble. I bet a dollar on the slots at the airport coming back from the MHI convention (and I won $1.50), but I wouldn’t have bet $1,000 in a million years. So for someone of Zell’s ability to bet that type of money, you have to assume that he feels really, really good about his bet.
Supporting evidence is coming from all types of sources.
I received an email this morning that describes upward pressures on apartment rents. Why? Because people are losing their homes in droves, and the job market is lousy. But I thought that one item in the letter was particularly interesting: “19 years of continually more aggressive government intervention toward home ownership is about to reverse itself”. I think that’s maybe the most important point of all. The government is showing signs that they are going to abandon taking a proactive stance to help Americans obtain and retain mortgages on homes. That alone will sink home ownership and force families into more affordable alternatives.
And manufactured home communities stand to gain as much in this regard as apartment owners.
Our economy is 100% lousy, and Americans need more affordable housing.
The average two bedroom apartment rent in the U.S. is now over $1,000 per month. Yet around 20% of the U.S. population has a household budget under $20,000 per year. The growing sweet spot in U.S. housing is for options in the $500 to $700 per month range. And that’s exactly what manufactured home communities deliver. You can’t get any type of detached housing for anywhere near the low cost of manufactured housing – and that is never going to change.
Think that our job market and wages are going to improve? Then you must not read the papers – or the forecasts by most economists. I like their tacos, but a job at Jack-In-The-Box is not a high paying career, yet how many folks with decent jobs are having to fall back to that type of work?
Conduit debt for manufactured home communities is returning rapidly.
A vital component to a return to lofty real estate values is the availability of institutional debt. And that is making an appearance through good old fashioned conduit financing. Indeed, I attended a dinner in which a conduit lender announced that they would be doing around $100 million in conduit debt in 2011. This is a big part of the picture, and has been quietly coming on stage over the last six months.
Zell would not have made his bet without knowing that the financing market was also returning.
The biggest factor of all – INFLATION.
If you read a lot of economic reports (don’t forget that I was an economics major in college), you’ll see that just about everyone is on board with the projection of growing U.S. inflation. And what’s the most successful hedge against inflation historically? You’re right, it’s real estate. If inflation comes back with a vengeance, like most people are projecting, just owning real estate will appear a genius stroke. And when everyone figures out about the inflation problem – and the articles in the news are everywhere – the value of all real estate will rise as a hedge against the declining dollar.
There is no doubt in my mind that Zell reads these same publications.
So what can you do to take advantage of this situation?
If you already own a manufactured home community, then just smile because you won. If you don’t have one, then buy one before everyone else figures it out (but don’t make a stupid buy in your haste to do so).
I’m not much of a gambler, but I feel strongly enough about Zell’s bet that I’ve been matching it. I bought 3,000 lots over the past year. And so have a lot of other investors. Everyone’s been buying quietly. But now that Zell has fired the starting gun, we can all come out of hiding and reveal what we’ve really been up to for the past year or two, and start jogging along behind him. And I’m sure that on May 31st of each year I’ll make a toast to the great manufactured home community gold rush.
Q
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